The Conservative Party are making a Big Deal out of their election slogan – Get Brexit Done. They know, but they don’t want you to know, that Brexit will not be “done” at all. Even if he succeeds in getting the Deal through in January, we will be engaged in lengthy negotiations over the UK’s future relationship with the remaining EU 27 – and we haven’t exactly covered ourselves in glory with our negotiating performance over the last 3 years.
If we leave on 31 January, we enter a transition period which ends in December 2020. The liklihood of an agreement being secured in those 11 short months is remote – according to The Guardian “Trade talks between advanced economies can fill the best part of a decade”.
So if Johnson succeeds in securing a majority on 12 December and gets his Deal passed by a supine Parliament, we can expect years of negotiations. Failure to complete a Free Trade Agreement by his self imposed deadline will raise again the spectre of No Deal in 12 months – as confirmed in the Conservative Party manifesto.
This time around though we will not still be enjoying the fruits of our EU membership, unable to secure a last minute extension and those lorries really could be stationery in Kent. As ex members, we will be exposed to the cold, hard realiities of trade and economics – a falling pound, rising costs, business failures all around.
It could take years to recover – are we really sure we want to do this?
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